Power Shift in the Middle East: Israel Now Holds the Upper Hand

A limited Israeli air attack on the Israeli consulate in Syria on April 1 resulted in the deaths of two senior Iranian army officers. Iran retaliated on April 13 with a massive attack of 250-300 missiles, drones, and cruise missiles that was intended to destroy Israel. But the attack was a complete failure. Israel, aided modestly by Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Western powers, including Britain and the United States, immediately deployed its air defense capabilities and, in a spectacular and unexpected display of defensive power, shot down essentially all the Iranian offensive weaponry. The immediate Iranian declaration that warned Israel not to retaliate was little more than a clumsy attempt to cover its embarrassment over its failures, as its key military assets are the same ballistic missiles, drones, and cruise missiles that already had failed. The Iranian army and navy are relatively minor forces.

The Iranian warning was further shown to be an absurd joke when Israel, on April 19, in a very limited retaliation, launched an attack on the Iranian military facilities near the city of Isfahan that not only was successful but had been undetected by Iranian air defenses during the attack. With its offense shattered and its defense penetrated, Iran has been shown to be the inferior military power in the Middle East. This exchange of munitions has shown that Israel controls the air space within the operating range of its weaponry.

After Israel’s failure to win the media war after the October 7 attack on its homeland, the situation is now reversed as Israel, while victorious in the Isfahan attack, has restrained itself from further military action. As a result, Israel has the support of other Middle East and Western powers as the responsible party in the Middle East. This success has put Israel in a powerful position, but Iran’s attempt to destroy Israel should not be forgotten. In fact, Iran’s attempt on April 13 is consistent with its declarations to destroy Israel since its founding almost eighty years ago. Israel can now take advantage of its current position of responsible power to demand that Iran acknowledge Israel as a sovereign state with a right to exist and maintain itself permanently within its current borders. In addition, Israel should also demand:

  • that Iran cease exports of oil to China
  • that Iran withdraw all support, military and otherwise, from proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis
  • that it cease all arms shipments to Russia
  • and that it cease and desist from any further nuclear development, subject to inspections.

Would Iran agree to this?  Probably not overnight, but failure of Iran to agree within one week to the Israeli demand for recognition of its sovereignty and a cessation of oil shipments to China should result in a complete blockade of Iranian ports and a cutoff of all oil exports. Iran’s oil exports to China and others over the past several years have brought in hundreds of billions of dollars that have been used to support the proxies. A blockade should be supported by Iranian allies, including naval forces of the United States. Future actions would depend on Iran’s willingness to agree to the other demands of Israel.

With regard to Gaza, amidst the calls from the supposed allies of Israel to halt further actions in Rafah to spare civilian casualties, why has there not also been a call from these same “allies” for Hamas to surrender its military forces in order to spare civilian casualties? Such surrender would include freedom for the hostages held by Hamas. Would military surrender and hostage freedom not spare civilian casualties and open an opportunity for peace in Gaza?

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About the Author

Dale Jenkins has had a lifelong interest in the Navy and international affairs. He is a former US Navy officer who served on a destroyer in the Pacific, and for a time was home-ported in Yokosuka, Japan. Pacific Fleet commitments took him to the Philippines, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. While on active duty he was awarded the Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Medal. Dale is also Senior Advisor to Americans for a Stronger Navy.

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