Chinese ships have been ramming Philippine naval vessels as the Philippine Navy attempts to resupply Second Thomas Shoal and Sabina Shoal, their offshore facilities in the South China Sea. These actions are consistent with China’s claim to have jurisdiction and control over the entire South China Sea except for a small coastal ribbon around other countries that border the Sea. A UN body condemned China’s claim some time ago.

The U.S. Indo-Pacific command stated that U.S. ships could escort resupply missions of Philippine forces to its facilities. Chinese state-controlled Global Times stated that China has the “right, responsibility and ability to…cut off Manila’s supplies.”[1] The United States has an existing mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, and the United States could be obligated to come to Manila’s aid if the Philippines enters an armed conflict with China.

Philippine Fleet | Image Credit: http://www.navy.mil.ph

There is another alternative. The Ukrainian navy has used unmanned surface boats to sink about one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. The United States could assist the Philippines by supplying them with unmanned surface boats similar to those used by the Ukrainians, but with explosive charges just sufficient to deter further ramming. The implication would be that more powerful charges would be used if ramming continued. The potential escalation will not be lost on the Chinese.

Could China retaliate in some way? The boats are small and very difficult to hit. Does China want to escalate a conflict in the South China Sea? Probably not to the degree necessary to counter the unmanned boats.

The United States could provide such supplies for its ally and show that the Philippines and the United States are demanding freedom of navigation for the entire South China Sea.

~DJ.

[1] USNI News, September 5, 2024